SB Nation:Baseball Perspectus predicting Yankees NOT to make the Playoffs

This is from former ESPN and now SB Nation writer Rob Neyer who is a baseball journalist. I love all the work he does and his writing is very informative and spot on. I think you should all read his stuff daily on this website. Here is the article:

Via SB Nation:

Baseball Prospectus has released their first Postseason Odds report for 2011, and even with the caveats it’s always compelling stuff. One obvious caveat: It’s early, and the rosters are going to look quite a bit different in August than April. Shoot, at this point in the process we don’t know precisely who’s going to be on the rosters in April. Then again, it’s mostly the every-day players and regular starters who make the real differences, and we do know the great majority of them.

After the jump, the eight projected playoff teams …

Here you go:

AL East: Red Sox (average 93 wins)
AL Central: Twins (86 wins)
AL West: Rangers (86 wins)
Best 2nd place in division: Rays (85 wins)

NL East: Phillies (87 wins)
NL Central: Brewers (86 wins)
NL West: Rockies (87 wins)
Best 2nd place in division: Dodgers (85 wins)

Gee, that doesn’t seem like much fun, does it? Only one team with more than 87 wins? Granted, you might enjoy the absence of the Yankees from that run; PECOTA’s got them finishing 83-79.

These things are nice little February diversions and PECOTA’s made some great calls before — most famously, predicting a nice season for Tampa Bay in 2008 — but at this point there are just too many roster decisions that haven’t been made, injuries that haven’t befallen, etc. And if the Yankees really win fewer than 85 games this season, I’ll eat these electrons.

(Big tip o’ the cap to BTF’s Newsstand for this one.)

Update: I’ve been informed by someone at Baseball Prospectus that the above projections were erroneously posted, and are not accurate. It’s still fun to think about the Yankees winning 83 games!

…This is actually a great list. It is very accurate and with the recent news of Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright out for the season, it gives the Brewers the edge to win that division with the Reds following in their footsteps. The Rockies look like the dominate team in that division but don’t be surprised if the Giants and their pitching can hold up and make another surprise World Series run. Another team that surprised me on the list is the Rays but under Joe Maddon they really can contend any year in that AL East. What is interesting to look at is the number of wins the prospectus gave and see how accurate they are. It predicts the Yankees with 83 wins and with their pitching depth and their lack of bench, I can see that haunting them. But you have to take into account that they are the Bankees, and they turn on the jets from June to August so expect a cold start this season. Just by reading this, I am just excited to talk about baseball every week and about how great the season will be. It is within our grasp right now…

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